Our FIRE calculator is built specifically for Canadians: factors the Canada Pension Plan (CPP/QPP), Old Age Security (OAS), RRSP vs TFSA optimization, and Monte Carlo simulation over 1,000 scenarios. Available in WealthWise (Premium).
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The 25× rule (also called the "Trinity rule" or 4% SWR — Safe Withdrawal Rate) is the foundation of FIRE math:
FIRE capital needed = annual expenses × 25
If your annual expenses are $50,000/yr, your target capital is $1,250,000. You withdraw 4% per year ($50,000), your investments grow 6-7% on average, and the portfolio survives 30+ years in most historical scenarios (Bengen 1994 study, Trinity Study 1998).
The pure 25× rule ignores government pensions. In Canada, two income streams kick in starting at 60 or 65:
So at 65, you can count on ~$15,000 to $25,000/year of government income. Your FIRE capital becomes more modest: if your expenses are $50k/yr and you receive $20k of pensions at 65, you only need $30k/yr from your investments after 65. That's $750k vs $1.25M.
But beware: before 60-65, you have to cover 100% of expenses from your own investments. The classic Canadian FIRE trap is underestimating the transition phase (50 to 65).
Most FIRE calculators assume constant 7%/year returns. That's unrealistic: the market goes up 25% one year, down -18% the next. A bad sequence at the start of your retirement can deplete your capital 8-12 years earlier — this is "sequence of returns risk".
Monte Carlo simulation solves this by modeling 1,000 possible paths with realistic volatility (~15% for a 60/40 balanced portfolio). Instead of telling you "you'll have $1M at 55", it tells you:
Target: ≥ 80% success probability. Below that, increase contributions, extend horizon, or reduce target expenses.
The optimal Canadian order depends on your current income and decumulation strategy. Here's the general rule that works for most:
| Profile | Recommended order | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Student / early career (income < $50k) | 1. TFSA (max) 2. RRSP if left | Low marginal rate today, so RRSP deduction is weak |
| Mid-career ($50-90k) | 1. Employer match RRSP 2. TFSA (max) 3. RRSP (max) | Balance between flexibility (TFSA) and immediate shelter (RRSP) |
| High income ($90k+) | 1. RRSP (max → refund) 2. TFSA (max) 3. Non-registered | High marginal today, large refund, likely reduced at retirement |
| Aggressive FIRE (savings 50%+) | 1. TFSA (max) 2. RRSP (depending on income) 3. Non-registered | TFSA = tax-free withdrawals, perfect to bridge age 50→60 |
During the first years of early retirement (low income), gradually transfer from RRSP to TFSA. You pay tax on the RRSP withdrawal, but at a very low marginal rate (15-20% vs 50% at peak). Over time, you end up with most assets in TFSA, completely tax-free.
Surprise: the #1 factor is not your income, it's your savings rate (% of net income put aside).
| Savings rate | Years to FIRE | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | ~51 years | Traditional retirement |
| 25% | ~32 years | Retirement at ~57 |
| 40% | ~22 years | Serious FIRE |
| 50% | ~17 years | Classic FIRE |
| 65% | ~10 years | Accelerated FIRE |
(Assumption: 7%/yr real return after inflation, constant expenses.) Doubling your income without increasing expenses halves the time to FIRE. That's why FIRErs optimize income as much as expenses, not just expenses.
Three FIRE levels: Lean (25× expenses, minimalist), Regular (25-30×, comfortable), Fat (50×, high comfort). With sliders to adjust target expenses.
Automatic calculation based on current portfolio + savings rate + expected return. Real-time refresh when you change a parameter.
Success probability, median, worst 10%, best 10%. Uncertainty band (cone) visualization around the median path.
Year-by-year projection until 65. Distinguishes contributions, investment gains, and inflation. Constant vs nominal dollar mode.
Calculation accounts for government pensions starting at 60-65, adjusting capital need. Optional field to enter your benefits estimate.
Our AI analyzes your parameters and suggests adjustments (increase TFSA contribution, rebalance toward more diversified ETF, etc.). With informational disclaimer.
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